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영어2 능률김 Extra Reading 영어2 능률김 Extra Reading
영어2 능률김 Extra Reading
영어2 능률김 Extra Reading
Lesson 3. Be a Critical Thinker (1)
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Lesson 3. Be a Critical Thinker (1)
During the United States presidential election of 1936, the US was still recovering from the Great Depression. The current president, Democrat Franklin Roosevelt, was trying to get reelected against Republican Alfred Landon. A well-known magazine of the time, called The Literary Digest, was famous for correctly predicting election results. That year, it ran a poll in which 10 million survey cards were mailed out. The Literary Digest got about 2.4 million of the cards back. Based on the data from these cards, the magazine predicted that the winner would be Landon by a large percentage. This couldn't have been more wrong. Roosevelt won, and his margin of victory was an overwhelming 62% to 38%. How could The Literary Digest make such a huge mistake? The first reason is that the magazine did not choose random people to participate in the poll. It gathered names and addresses from public records such as phone directories and car registrations. However, back then, people with lower incomes were not likely to use a phone, own a car, or do anything else that would put them on a public record. As a consequence, the addresses gathered by The Literary Digest were mainly for households of the middle and upper classes. In 1936, the people in these classes usually voted Republican, so The Literary Digest poll had a heavily Republican sample. The second problem with The Literary Digest poll was that it was voluntary. When the magazine sent out survey cards, anyone who received the card could reply. Unfortunately, in such a survey, there's always a possibility that people with a certain opinion are more likely to reply than the others. The bias caused by these voluntary responses can lead to survey results that are totally wrong. In summary, when a sample is biased, no matter how big the sample is, the results of the survey can't be trusted.
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1 During the United States presidential election of 1936, the US was still recovering from the Great Depression. 2 The current president, Democrat Franklin Roosevelt, was trying to get reelected against Republican Alfred Landon. 3 A well-known magazine of the time, called The Literary Digest, was famous for correctly predicting election results. 4 That year, it ran a poll in which 10 million survey cards were mailed out. 5 The Literary Digest got about 2.4 million of the cards back. 6 Based on the data from these cards, the magazine predicted that the winner would be Landon by a large percentage. 7 This couldn't have been more wrong. 8 Roosevelt won, and his margin of victory was an overwhelming 62% to 38%. 9 How could The Literary Digest make such a huge mistake? 10 The first reason is that the magazine did not choose random people to participate in the poll. 11 It gathered names and addresses from public records such as phone directories and car registrations. 12 However, back then, people with lower incomes were not likely to use a phone, own a car, or do anything else that would put them on a public record. 13 As a consequence, the addresses gathered by The Literary Digest were mainly for households of the middle and upper classes. 14 In 1936, the people in these classes usually voted Republican, so The Literary Digest poll had a heavily Republican sample. 15 The second problem with The Literary Digest poll was that it was voluntary. 16 When the magazine sent out survey cards, anyone who received the card could reply. 17 Unfortunately, in such a survey, there's always a possibility that people with a certain opinion are more likely to reply than the others. 18 The bias caused by these voluntary responses can lead to survey results that are totally wrong. 19 In summary, when a sample is biased, no matter how big the sample is, the results of the survey can't be trusted.